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第23回 社研・森口賞 受賞者 森口賞 Winner 　日野将志 / Masashi Hino（The Ohio State University) 論文 Title A Model of Anticipated Consumption Tax Changes 講評 Review This paper studies household spending responses to anticipated changes in the consumption tax, using the recent tax hikes in 2014 implemented by the Japanese government, with a life-cycle heterogeneous-agent general equilibrium model which features a tax wedge in durable transactions such that households pay households do not receive consumption tax when selling it. The baseline analysis generates an empirically consistent dynamic pattern of tax elasticity, and the counterfactual experiments show that the effect of a consumption tax decrease is not symmetric to the tax hike and that multiple-times tax hike scheme is welfare improving for almost all households. While the paper contributes, among others, to the literature on unconventional fiscal policy by showing that pre-announced tax hikes can be an effective tool to stimulate spending in low interest rate environments where the zero lower bound binding, it may be useful to connect the work more generally to the literature analyzing the asymmetric effects of fiscal policy. It is also important to thoroughly review the institutional feature of the Japanese VAT scheme and align it with the underlying assumptions of the model.     入選 Runner-up 浅海達也 / Tatsuya Asami（神戸大学 / Kobe University) 論文 Title Timing of International Market Openings and Shrinking Middle-Income Class 講評 Review This paper modifies and extends Galor and Zeira (1993, REStud) influenced model by adding the heterogeneity in abilities, rather than the heterogeneity in intergenerational bequest transfers due to the difference in initial endowment, to analyze the effects of international market openings on the evolution of middle-income class. The author argues that the timing of international trade openings matters for this evolution. If the economy engages to international markets too early, particularly when it is not developed enough, then the international trade activities create adverse effects on education investment among middle-income class, making this class shrink. In contrary, if the economy is sufficiently developed then international markets opening would be beneficial for human capital formation of the middle-income class. These movements, under the international markets opening, specifically hinge on the level of intergenerational bequest transfers which are determined by the level of development. Overall, the topic is interesting and important in understanding the dynamics of middle-income class. Given the current version of the paper, however, the prize committee strongly encourage the author to focus more on clarifying the mechanism behind the theoretical results as well as to discuss further about alternative directions of effects of international trade, which depend on the comparative advantages of the economy, on the income distribution. These to-do-works promise to strengthen the scientific contributions of the paper.     報告会は2020年12月7日オンラインでおこなわれました。